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MacroRead Score · Composite Economic Health Index

Macro indicators, made readable

10 indicators across credit markets, labor, global trade, and energy — the same data wealth managers and economists track, with plain-English context. No subscriptions, no jargon.

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Indicators expanding
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Neutral signals
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Stress signals
Composite Score · 0 to 100
ContractionNeutralExpansion
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Strong Expansion80–100
Moderate Expansion60–79
Neutral / Mixed40–59
Moderate Contraction20–39
Strong Contraction0–19
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What changed this week
Past 7 trading days
All Indicators at a Glance
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📋 MacroRead Analysis — What the Data Shows Today
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Key Readings to Watch

Extreme levels and rapid movements

MacroRead Score — Historical

MacroRead Score
SPY (normalized)
Key events (hover)
Red zone < 40 · Green zone > 60 · Hover chart for values

Historical Data

Cross-Indicator Insights

When independent signals align, the read is stronger

Market Context

What the bond market expects, separate from current fundamentals
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread
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Last 60 trading days
What bond traders are pricing in
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Fundamentals vs Market Expectations
MacroRead Score (current fundamentals) —
Implied by yield curve (12–24mo ahead) —
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Not a recession predictor — shown for context only The yield curve reflects bond trader expectations about future Fed policy, not current economic activity. Its recession-signaling reliability has weakened in the post-2022 era — the curve was inverted for 25+ months between 2022 and 2024 without producing a recession. This panel is displayed to help interpret the composite score, not to add another recession gauge.

Credit Markets

3 indicators
Credit market indicators measure the cost and availability of borrowing. When credit conditions tighten, businesses and consumers face higher costs — often a leading signal before broader economic slowdowns appear in official data.
Related
Housing affordability tracks closely with credit conditions and consumer health — mortgage rates respond to the same forces that move credit spreads, and housing cost burden is one of the largest pressure points on household budgets. For city-level affordability and price momentum across 19 cities in 4 countries, see housing.macroread.com.

Labor & Business Activity

3 indicators
Labor indicators reveal the confidence of workers and employers. Quits data and claims figures often turn before official unemployment — giving an earlier read on where the economy is heading.

Trade & Commodities

2 indicators
Trade and commodity signals reflect real-world demand for raw materials and finished goods. These represent physical activity — harder to manipulate and highly credible as economic signals.

Energy

2 indicators
Energy data captures demand from households, industry, and transport. Storage deviations and refinery margins provide independent reads on real-economy consumption trends.

Methodology

Each indicator is normalized to a 0–100 scale using its distribution since 2000, then combined with fixed weights. A score of 50 represents neutral conditions historically. All weights sum to 100%. Indicators with higher update frequency and stronger predictive track records carry greater weight.

Normalization window: 2000–present, capturing full-cycle variation including 2008 and 2020 extremes. ADS Business Conditions and Initial Jobless Claims have a known overlap (ADS uses claims as one of six inputs); both are retained at reduced weights to account for this. Lagging indicators (Credit Card Delinquency) carry reduced weight to reflect publication lag. This index measures economic fundamentals, not market sentiment — during fast-moving market events, the score may take days or weeks to fully reflect changed conditions as underlying economic data is released.

IndicatorSourceCadenceWeightData Reliability
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Frequently Asked Questions